Markets

India to grow at 7.4% in 2018

India to grow at 7.4% in 2018

Stronger U.S. demand will benefit most of the rest of the world, assuming Trump doesn't start a trade war.

In general, economy of the CIS member countries will grow 2.2 percent in 2018 and 2.1 percent in 2019, according to analysts of the fund. The IMF acknowledges that's a risk, but it also says business confidence could be such that it's underestimating the U.S.'s potential to grow this year.

The government here said it expects Asia's fourth-largest economy to advance 3 percent in 2018. This is increasing the risk of various asset class bubbles emerging - or bursting.

"While some governments are pursuing substantial economic reforms, trade disputes risk diverting others from the constructive steps they would need to take now to improve and secure growth prospects", he said.

Describing the United States fiscal position as "unsustainable" it urges the U.S. to stabilise and reduce its debt level, and withdraw the pro-cyclical stimulus that is already in the economy.

According to the WEO, growth in China and India a year ago was supported by resurgent net exports and strong private consumption, respectively, while investment growth slowed.

"Global growth is projected to soften beyond the next couple of years", the International Monetary Fund said in the report, adding that advanced economies would be "held back by aging populations and lackluster productivity".

Mr Obstfeld said the "get tough" approach by the U.S. in trade talks with China, Mexico Canada and others "will do little to change the multilateral or overall United States external current account deficit, which owes primarily to level of aggregate USA spending that continues to exceed total income".

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The WEO upgraded the U.S., which is expected to expand by 2.9% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019 - up from the 2.7% and 2.5% predicted in January.

"Nevertheless, 40 emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow more slowly in per capita terms than advanced economies, failing to narrow income gaps vis-a-vis the group of more prosperous countries", the International Monetary Fund said.

The IMF increased its forecast for expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa to 3.4% this year and 3.7% the next "as the challenging outlook in commodity exporters gradually improves". But the forecast for 2019 was unchanged at 2.0%.

House attributes the rosier USA outlook to federal tax cuts, a massive US$300-billion spending package and the possibility of an additional spending or infrastructure bill.

"This IMF Statement follows recent positive reviews from the major credit rating agencies of our Government's economic plan and different priorities", Grant Robertson says.

It forecasts the Irish economy to grow at 4.5% this year and 4% next year.

Its goals are to ensure the stability of the worldwide monetary system (exchange rates and global payments), to secure financial stability, facilitate global trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty. The IMF predicts oil prices will average about US$62 a barrel in 2018, compared with an estimate of about US$52 a barrel in October.